The Twelve Portfolio - April 29, 2025
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The equity portion of The Twelve continues to face resistance. Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, Meta, and Google continue to find resistance below the intermediate trend line yet have found support above the trade trend line. From a trade trend perspective, this shows a short-term positive possibility for upward movement. Microsoft and Tesla have found resistance at the intermediate trend line as well as support at the trade trend line. These two moving averages are now beginning to converge, with the trade line moving up toward the intermediate trend line. Of all seven equity positions, Microsoft and Tesla show the most opportunity for upside moves, while the remaining five face resistance below the intermediate trend line. Earnings reports will be a significant factor this week in determining which direction the equity portion of this portfolio moves.
On the crypto side of The Twelve, Bitcoin, Ripple, Solana, and Binance are all trading above both the intermediate trend line and the trade trend line. Ethereum has encountered resistance at the intermediate trend line, yet the trade trend line is rapidly approaching the intermediate trend line, which could signal a potential upward movement for Ethereum.
This shift from equities to crypto over the past two weeks exemplifies the market seeking value. Analysts note that the crypto market needs catalysts to move higher, such as Federal Reserve interest rate cuts or clear pro-crypto regulatory frameworks from the Trump administration. Keep an eye on potential changes in the intermediate trend line for Microsoft and Tesla, which could indicate opportunities for upward movement and increased allocation.
With just two more trading days left in the month, we may see changes in the equity portion of the portfolio. Tesla could be replaced by Berkshire Hathaway based on today's market capitalization within the S&P 500. If this change occurs, it will take effect on May 1. More news to follow on this development.
Additional market insights:
S&P 500 earnings for Q1 2025 are expected to increase by 5.9% year-over-year on 3.7% higher revenues, though estimates have been declining since the quarter began.
Major tech companies including Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft plan to invest up to $320 billion in AI advancement technologies in 2025, which could drive future growth despite recent market volatility.
While Nvidia led the Magnificent Seven in 2024 with over 170% growth, increasing competition in the AI sector may create more opportunities across the group in 2025.
In the crypto space, Solana has been more volatile than Bitcoin and Ethereum, with realized volatility near 80% - twice as high as Bitcoin and nearly one-third higher than Ethereum.
Stay positioned for potential shifts as we approach the end of the month and monitor upcoming earnings announcements that could significantly impact both equity and crypto markets.
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Trent
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