Open the Hood

Don't just look at just the headlines

Delinquency Rate on Credit Card Loans representing all commercial banks is up 43.3% from 4th quarter 2022 back to 4th quarter 2021.

Consumer Auto Loans have fallen from a increase of 8.53% from April 2021 to April 13, 2022 to a -0.3% from April 13, 2022 to April 14, 2023.

Consumer Loan Delinquency Rate is up 34.2% year over year. As you can see in the chart below, the comparison between now and and 2006 to 2009 is similar.

Why am I sharing this information?

As you have noticed as I have, the stock market seems to continue to rise high so far this year. Yet when you open the hood there is a different story playing out. The charts above represent the consumer. What isn’t talked about much is the corporate debt load and the challenges they are facing when it comes to refinancing debt that once had a 4% interest rate that is now having to be refinanced at 8%.

Commercial and Industrial Loans from all commercial banks is at $2,762,733,600,000.

The last 15 years of cheap money has come to an end, corporate debt cost are skyrocketing. Yet this cost has yet to show and expose itself to the world.

The above information is why QQQTrades.Club Asset Allocation Model is positioned as it is. Positioned for the shoe to drop. Below I have update the model to increases in the fixed income and precious medals categories. Still holding cash for buying opportunities.