Market Outlook for April 30, 2025

Tech Earnings and Market Direction

Nvidia will open lower this morning, influenced by earnings from Snap, Starbucks, and other reports from yesterday. Today after the bell, Microsoft and Meta will report earnings – two significant players in "The Magnificent Seven." On Thursday, Amazon and Apple will follow. These four names alone could determine the direction of the overall equity market going forward.

Guidance from these companies is expected to be unfavorable to an upward move in the markets, based on the tariff issues and declining consumer spending. Amazon appears to be the most affected by these factors, whereas Meta could be more resilient thanks to the strength of its advertising platforms, which offer advertisers superior ROI compared to smaller internet peers.

Yesterday, Amazon's stock slipped 0.3%, recovering from an earlier decline of more than 2% after White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt criticized the company's reported plan to highlight tariff impacts in its pricing as a "hostile and political act." Amazon later clarified that such a plan "was never approved and is not going to happen."

Analysts have reduced Meta's 2025 revenue estimates by 4.4% to $179.8 billion due to the China trade war, noting Meta is "more exposed to discretionary spending" and China compared to Google. The market will be watching closely to see if this assessment holds true when Meta reports today.

(having technical issues with the crypto portion. sorry for the inconvenience)

Cryptocurrency Outlook

Crypto continues to demonstrate strength. It represents better value and is less affected from a tariff perspective than equity positions. Bitcoin reclaimed the $90,000 level recently, bringing its 2-day gain to more than 8%. U.S. ETFs tracking spot bitcoin logged significant inflows as investors sought alternatives amid stock market turbulence.

As of April 29, 2025, Bitcoin is trading at $94,828.82, with an impressive 51.19% price change over the last 12 months despite extreme volatility. The cryptocurrency has shown remarkable resilience in the face of Trump's shifting tariff policies, maintaining strength while equities have struggled.

Bitcoin has staged a strong daily rally recently, gaining over 6.2% and breaking key resistance levels. Technical indicators remain firmly bullish, with price targets suggesting Bitcoin could reach $95,000-$97,500 in the near term, with the potential to test $100,000.

Investment Strategy

My game plan continues to focus on the strength of the intermediate trend line. My process evaluates where a stock price trades relative to this trend line. Crypto has benefited from trading above the intermediate trend line, resulting in gains across all cryptocurrencies in the past couple of weeks.

Until we see from three levels – macro, fundamentals, and technical – that both the equity and crypto portions of the portfolio begin closing above the intermediate trend line, I will maintain a bearish stance. My approach is multidimensional, not just long-only. I employ strategies to buy long, short stocks, and play stocks from a neutral standpoint. This approach gives me a higher probability of achieving wealth-building goals versus being one-dimensional and only making money when stocks rise.

Broaden your horizons and learn how to become a more versatile investor in these challenging market conditions.