Its the Combination of Things that Matter

Oil, Manufacturing, Bank H.T.M Assets, Rising Cost of Goods Equal Fed Hike

Just when you thought we where seeing Deflation occurring, oil is up another 1% this morning after yesterdays announcement the OPEC cut production jumping price up yesterday.

"We had already expected the oil market to tighten over 2H23 and these cuts mean that the oil market will be even tighter for the remainder of the year," ING said. "As a result, we now expect oil prices to trade above US$100/bbl over the second half of the year."

Manufacturing PMI^®

"The March Manufacturing PMI^® registered 46.3 percent, 1.4 percentage points lower than the 47.7 percent recorded in February. Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates a fourth month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion. The Manufacturing PMI^® is at its lowest level since May 2020, when it registered 43.5 percent.” - PRNewswire

Slowing economy equals slowing manufacturing. As seen in the chart above, contracting PMI is a representation of consumer spending.

Diamond Man of Banking Speeks

Jamie Dimon, longtime JPMorgan Chase CEO, said of the latest financial shock in his annual letter: “The current crisis is not yet over, and even when it is behind us, there will be repercussions from it for years to come. But importantly, recent events are nothing like what occurred during the 2008 global financial crisis,” he added in the letter released Tuesday. - CNBC

Much more to come pertaining to the banking world and its connection with Commercial Real Estate to come.

Yield Curve

Yield Curve tick up yesterday as the 2yr yield broke below 4% yesterday. Remember, one day does not represent a trend. Chart below is yesterdays close of the 10yr and 2yr Treasury. This morning Yield Curve is at -0.54%.

QQQ Trade Ideas Asset Allocation Model

Subscribe for $11.99 a month. Cancel anytime. Below subscribers can see my QQQ Trade Ideas Asset Allocation model based on MACRO Economic environment and Money Flow.