Is Friday the Biggest Day of the Year?
U.S. Unemployment Rate / US Employment Report
The November jobs report, scheduled for release on December 6, 2024, is expected to show a significant recovery from October's weak performance. While October added only 12,000 jobs, economists forecast approximately 215,000 new jobs for November. This anticipated rebound is attributed to several factors, including the resolution of disruptions from Hurricanes Helene and Milton, the return of about 40,000 striking workers, and a recovery of roughly 60,000 jobs in storm-affected areas.
Despite the expected job growth, the unemployment rate is predicted to hold steady at 4.1%, remaining near 50-year lows. Wage growth is forecast to moderate slightly, with hourly earnings expected to increase by 0.3%, down from October's 0.4% rise.
Key sectors expected to drive hiring include government, education, health services, and manufacturing, though retail might see a slight decline due to the later timing of Thanksgiving and Black Friday this year. The report holds particular significance for monetary policy, as futures markets currently show a 75% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at their next meeting.
Overall, the November report is anticipated to demonstrate the resilience of the U.S. labor market, though some challenges persist, such as longer job search periods for the unemployed. The data will provide important insights into economic health and could significantly influence both policy decisions and market sentiment heading into the end of 2024.
ISM Purchasing Mangers Index (PMI)
Unemployment Rate
US Producers Price Index
US ISM Manufacturing Prices
